William Katz: Urgent Agenda
|
TRACKERS Posted at 3:24 p.m. ET Both trackers are out for the day, and they diverge. But we stress again, we're dealing with small changes, inside the margin of error. As reported earlier, Rasmussen has Obama up three, 48-45, the largest advantage he's had since July. But Gallup reports a dead heat - each candidate at 45 percent. An ABC/Washington Post poll released today has Obama up four. We've pointed out that the daily snapshot isn't very important. It's the trend over time that counts. Even that caveat has to be viewed with caution, however, It's likely that Obama will get a bump in the polls from this week's Democratic convention. The key will be whether he can maintain it, historically unlikely, and whether McCain gets a similar bump from his convention next week. Voters, in the last month, have been reluctant to change their views. The next two weeks will determine whether either candidate goes into the home stretch with any real advantage. August 24, 2008. |